By: Sam Vaknin, Brussels Morning
May on both sides of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict now say that only solution to the conflict between the Palestinians and the Israelis that has been going on since 1882 is ethnic cleansing by one of the peoples involved perpetrated against the other. Both parties maintain maximal positions and victimhood grievances. Both of them insist on possessing 100% of the territory of Palestine/Israel.
Currently, Israel is poised to exact revenge on Gazans for the October 7 atrocities and destroy the Hamas. But Hamas is the symptom, not the disease which is the Israeli occupation. If Israel is successful in eradicating it, another resistance terrorist organization will take its place. Same applies to Hezbollah.
Israel is a paper tiger. Its army is in bad shape, similar to the Russian army. Should Israel be confronted with aggression on several fronts — Lebanon, Syria, the West Bank, and Gaza — it will be defeated.
The Americans are aware of Israel’s frailty. This is why they are moving military assets into the region. Iran’s involvement may lead to an escalation of this local conflict to a regional one, akin to Vietnam.
Both parties commit war crimes against civilians regularly. Terrorism is indistinguishable from state terrorism.
There is a high chance of Hezbollah involvement owing to Israel’s disproportional reactions to its initial provocations. Syria may also support Hezbollah sporadically. But I doubt that this conflict will involve any other actors. The Palestinians have alienated literally all their supporters over the years. They are political, diplomatic, and military orphans, pawns in the hands of the likes of Qatar, Israel, and Iran.
With China’s acquiescence and then help, Russia transformed its invasion of Ukraine into a proxy war with the West. This led to escalation in conflicts along the fault lines between East and West all over the world, including in the Middle East and soon in Taiwan. We are in the throes of a global realignment of power, similar to the period of the 1950s and 1960s when the West tried to contain the USSR and Communist China.
The United States is polarized and paralyzed. It has no budget. It can barely support with military aid more than 2 conflicts at a time. NATO is underfunded and under-trained. As Ukraine is going to find out very soon, the West is not a reliable or long-term ally.
Sam Vaknin, Ph.D. is a former economic advisor to governments (Nigeria, Sierra Leone, North Macedonia), served as the editor in chief of “Global Politician” and as a columnist in various print and international media including “Central Europe Review” and United Press International (UPI). He taught psychology and finance in various academic institutions in several countries (http://www.narcissistic-abuse.com/cv.html )